반응형
✅ 2️⃣ Core Summary
- Focus Zone: Tokara Islands, Ryukyu Trench, Hyuganada, Eastern Honshu
- Key Events:
- Two M5.5 shocks detected in Tokara region
- Continuous micro-swarm (M2.5–M3.5) every 10–30 minutes
- Parallel swarm activity: Indonesia, Nicobar Islands, Alaska, Central Asia, Turkey
✅ 3️⃣ Observed Data
- Observation Window: July 5, 21:00 ~ July 6, 20:00 JST
- Peak Magnitude: M5.5 (twice)
- Residual Activity: Persistent micro-swarms — no full quiet zone yet
- Energy Pattern: Total seismic energy (log scale) is still increasing
- Main Behavior: Slow slip + chain slip + swarm pattern → Partial core rupture → Residual stress remains visible
✅ 4️⃣ Analysis
Key Points:
1️⃣ Double M5.5 = Partial Core Break, Not Total Release
- The back-to-back M5.5 indicates core tension was only partially released.
- Small quakes continuing at short intervals means residual fault slip is ongoing.
2️⃣ Cumulative Energy = Still Rising
- The energy curve has not flattened — indicates sustained stress transfer.
- If the curve flattens, the swarm is dissipating naturally.
3️⃣ Current Phase = Temporary Lull
- Present status: not resolved — a pause while slow slip disperses stress.
- If swarm frequency drops to zero → Full relief.
- If swarm frequency stays or scales up → M4–5 re-trigger likely.
✅ 5️⃣ Next 24h Outlook
- If micro-swarms persist → 40–60% probability of new M4–5 event within 12–24h.
- If swarm frequency sharply declines → natural resolution dominant.
- High-priority watch line: Tokara → Ryukyu → Hyuganada → Nankai Trough boundary.
✅ 6️⃣ Monitoring Focus
- Keep tracking: swarm interval, small-magnitude density.
- Critical sign: any sudden jump to M4+ indicates possible swarm reactivation.
- Update cumulative energy + swarm frequency graphs every 6–12h.
반응형
'Geek' 카테고리의 다른 글
[2025년 7월 6일] 도카라류큐휴가나다~난카이 연계 관찰 리포트 (0) | 2025.07.05 |
---|---|
한국 AI 산업 구조 현실 분석 보고서 (1) | 2025.07.04 |
[2025-07-04] 일본 도카라 군발~난카이 연쇄 가능성 구조 보고 (0) | 2025.07.04 |
2025 도카라 군발지진 → 난카이 트로프 & 동일본 비교 최종 정리 (0) | 2025.07.02 |
2025년 7월 2일 기준 | 도카라 열도 군발 지진 구조론 분석 요약 (0) | 2025.07.02 |