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Seismic Activity Observation — July 6, 2025(Tokara Region Cluster & Global Swarm Status)

by hamagun 2025. 7. 6.
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2️⃣ Core Summary

  • Focus Zone: Tokara Islands, Ryukyu Trench, Hyuganada, Eastern Honshu
  • Key Events:
    • Two M5.5 shocks detected in Tokara region
    • Continuous micro-swarm (M2.5–M3.5) every 10–30 minutes
    • Parallel swarm activity: Indonesia, Nicobar Islands, Alaska, Central Asia, Turkey

3️⃣ Observed Data

  • Observation Window: July 5, 21:00 ~ July 6, 20:00 JST
  • Peak Magnitude: M5.5 (twice)
  • Residual Activity: Persistent micro-swarms — no full quiet zone yet
  • Energy Pattern: Total seismic energy (log scale) is still increasing
  • Main Behavior: Slow slip + chain slip + swarm pattern → Partial core rupture → Residual stress remains visible

4️⃣ Analysis

Key Points:
1️⃣ Double M5.5 = Partial Core Break, Not Total Release

  • The back-to-back M5.5 indicates core tension was only partially released.
  • Small quakes continuing at short intervals means residual fault slip is ongoing.

2️⃣ Cumulative Energy = Still Rising

  • The energy curve has not flattened — indicates sustained stress transfer.
  • If the curve flattens, the swarm is dissipating naturally.

3️⃣ Current Phase = Temporary Lull

  • Present status: not resolved — a pause while slow slip disperses stress.
  • If swarm frequency drops to zero → Full relief.
  • If swarm frequency stays or scales up → M4–5 re-trigger likely.

5️⃣ Next 24h Outlook

  • If micro-swarms persist → 40–60% probability of new M4–5 event within 12–24h.
  • If swarm frequency sharply declines → natural resolution dominant.
  • High-priority watch line: Tokara → Ryukyu → Hyuganada → Nankai Trough boundary.

6️⃣ Monitoring Focus

  • Keep tracking: swarm interval, small-magnitude density.
  • Critical sign: any sudden jump to M4+ indicates possible swarm reactivation.
  • Update cumulative energy + swarm frequency graphs every 6–12h.
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